Winnebago Up 35% YoY 2021 Q1 Results

[creativepart]

https://rvbusiness.com/winnebago-ind...21-q1-results/

• Organic RV Market Share Gains Continue, Rising 110 Basis Points on a Trailing 12-Month Basis
• Quarterly Revenues Up 34.8% Year-Over-Year, Bolstered by Strong End Consumer Demand
• First Quarter Gross Margin Expansion of 390 Basis Points
• Reported Diluted EPS of $1.70; Adjusted EPS of $1.69 Up 131.5% Over Prior Year
• Record Order Backlogs and Retail Sales Momentum Validate Continued Interest in the Outdoors

[AJMike]

Originally Posted by creativepart

https://rvbusiness.com/winnebago-ind...21-q1-results/

• Organic RV Market Share Gains Continue, Rising 110 Basis Points on a Trailing 12-Month Basis
• Quarterly Revenues Up 34.8% Year-Over-Year, Bolstered by Strong End Consumer Demand
• First Quarter Gross Margin Expansion of 390 Basis Points
• Reported Diluted EPS of $1.70; Adjusted EPS of $1.69 Up 131.5% Over Prior Year
• Record Order Backlogs and Retail Sales Momentum Validate Continued Interest in the Outdoors

Another indication of just how bad my prediction abilities are. If I had been asked I would have said that I was sure that RV sales would plummet when the virus hit. After all, lots of people would be out of work and trying to save money, people would not be traveling since they would be locked down at home and no one was going to invest such large amounts of money in an RV when the future was uncertain. Ha!

But then back when Steve Jobs invested in remote controls I asked why anyone would do such a silly thing. I mean, who would buy a remote control when the device already came with one?

Its a good thing I never tried to make a living off of the stock market ...

[Elkman]

The number of visitors to places like Yellowstone doubled compared to 2019 with people not able to take a cruise or go to Disneyland or similar places with their families. Flying on passenger planes was also high risk along with the airports and shuttle buses. People still wanted to go someplace and an RV was a lower risk way to do this.

In 2021 there will be a great many used RVs hitting the market and demand for new ones will plummet. People will go on cruises and be planning trips to resorts and putting money into overseas travel (at teast once countries start to allow Americans back in).

Demand for eBikes also took off and also for bike racks built to take the weight of an electric bicycle. Pretty much anything related to RVs was in short supply or the vendors increased prices by 50% because they could get away with it.

[Eagle5]

I believe that the demand for RVs, and Motorhomes in particular, will not diminish in 2021, but rather, will continue to be strong. I believe folks want the independence that Motorhomes offer.
Anger might best describe my feelings as to these lock-downs and restrictions. While you might argue that airlines and cruise-lines are just doing what they need to do, I have permanently lost interest in participating in those forms of transportation.
Just as a hypothetical, if someone gave you $10K to invest in the stock market, would you buy Boeing or Winnebago?
Eagle5

[creativepart]

Originally Posted by Eagle5

Just as a hypothetical, if someone gave you $10K to invest in the stock market, would you buy Boeing or Winnebago?

Tesla

[Eagle5]

At market close on Friday, 12-18-2020, here are the stock values:
Boeing = 219¾
Winnebago = 62¾
Tesla = 695
Might be interesting to check-back on these in a year.
Eagle5

[AJMike]

Originally Posted by Eagle5

I believe that the demand for RVs, and Motorhomes in particular, will not diminish in 2021, but rather, will continue to be strong. I believe folks want the independence that Motorhomes offer.

I agree, but I think some of that will depend upon what happens to fuel prices, and I expect those to go up dramatically in the next year.

I believe that the new administration will dramatically cut back on some of the oil exploration, especially fracking, and that that will drive prices up. Some of those who just bought RVs may find that the cost of traveling is much higher than they originally thought and I believe that will tend do depress some of the increase in RV sales.

Originally Posted by Eagle5

Anger might best describe my feelings as to these lock-downs and restrictions. While you might argue that airlines and cruise-lines are just doing what they need to do, I have permanently lost interest in participating in those forms of transportation.

Hopefully the vaccine will have a positive effect on life and these lock-downs will end. Hopefully.

My fear is that the experience will carry forward and the next time there is some wide spread disease those in power will just automatically reinstate the lock-downs. It will be a lot easier to do that since it has now already been done, and there apparently are some in the country who think it is the first thing to do, not the last.

[AJMike]

Originally Posted by creativepart

Tesla

Perhaps, and especially in Europe and the UK where distances are not large. But I don't see electric cars becoming a very big market in the US until there is some way to drive decent distances without having to stop for a couple of hours to recharge the battery.

When people ican drive from, say, Phoenix to Los Angeles or Atlanta to New Orleans with only 10 minute stops to charge or change batteries, then perhaps it will be a practical alternative to gasoline and/or diesel. Until then I think it will only be an inner city type of vehicle, and not one practical for trucking or RVing.

[creativepart]

RE: Lockdowns.
The countries around the world that truly completely locked down are already back to normal. The efficacy of that tact is fully evident. We are the opposite. Proof that not locking down doesn’t work. This is absolutely clear.

RE: Electric Vehicles
Just as when ICE vehicles replaced the horse and buggy the beginning of the change over takes time. This is no different. But this change will be faster. In 1900 you could ride a horse across the country but you couldn’t dive a car to the next town. It took massive development and infrastructure to make it possible. Now it’s been a fact of life for 60-yrs.

[AJMike]

Originally Posted by creativepart

RE: Lockdowns.
The countries around the world that truly completely locked down are already back to normal. The efficacy of that tact is fully evident. We are the opposite. Proof that not locking down doesn’t work. This is absolutely clear.

The UK has been under much more serious restrictions than the US, and now they are in much worse shape. So bad that they have now instituted almost draconian measures with their new "tier" system.

In addition there are serious legal issues at stake here. People complained that Trump did not institute a nation-wide lockdown or at least a nation-wide mask mandate, but he had no legal authority to do so, even if he wished to do that. It behooves people to be careful, and we are, but I don't believe that lock-downs are the first solution to the problem.

Originally Posted by creativepart

RE: Electric Vehicles
Just as when ICE vehicles replaced the horse and buggy the beginning of the change over takes time. This is no different. But this change will be faster. In 1900 you could ride a horse across the country but you couldn’t dive a car to the next town. It took massive development and infrastructure to make it possible. Now it’s been a fact of life for 60-yrs.

Yes, and when there is some way to travel long distances with electric vehicles without having to spend long times "refueling" I believe they will begin to replace gas and diesel vehicles, but until then I do not see how they can become very popular in a country as large as the US. Even in places like the Northeast where distances are relatively small, they are still greater than in many parts of Europe.

As I have often pointed out to my friends who live in the UK, the distance from Edinburgh to London, which is considered a long way there, is about the same as the distance as the north to south length of the state of Utah. Distances between major cities in the US are just much, much greater than most of those in Europe, and so the challenges for electric vehicles are also greater.

I am not suggesting electric vehicles are not the future, only that the future may be further off than we think or may require different solutions. For example I don't really understand why companies like Tesla have not tried to institute battery replacement instead of battery recharge centers. Then presumably cars could stop at an electric station and have its battery swapped out relatively quickly instead of requiring a could of hours for charging.

But then, again, I have never been good at predicting the future.

[Eagle5]

My neighbor's son just purchased a new Tesla Model 3. He claimed it had a maximum range of about 350 miles, and that rapid 15 minute charging stations are located at various places along the freeways.
The Market Capitalization of Tesla = 659 Billion Dollars
The Market Capitalization of all of the companies listed below is 808 Billion Dollars. Tesla is freakishly valued, so I suspect it won't grow as well as Winnebago. Buy low and sell high, right?
Toyota = 210 Billion Dollars
Boeing = 124 Billion Dollars
Volkswagen = 90 Billion Dollars
Mercedes Benz = 77 Billion Dollars
General Motors = 59 Billion Dollars
BMW = 55 Billion Dollars
Honda = 52 Billion Dollars
Hyundai = 40 Billion Dollars
Ford = 36 Billion Dollars
Fiat Chrysler = 34 Billion Dollars
Nissan = 22 Billion Dollars
Thor = 5 Billion Dollars
Mazda = 2 Billion Dollars
Winnebago = 2 Billion Dollars
In the history of the world, there have been 2,600 different currencies, with none of them surviving over 51 years. Our current Federal Reserve Note is now over 49 years old, and I suspect a replacement will be introduced within the next two years. I believe this new dollar will become the money against which all other currencies will be measured. It will be so stable and valuable that gasoline will drop to just one dollar per gallon. I also believe we are about to find new oil reserves within the USA. I believe we have a great future in store for us, and I believe the future of motorhome sales will continue strongly for a long time to come. Buy Winnebago!
Eagle5

[AJMike]

Originally Posted by Eagle5

My neighbor's son just purchased a new Tesla Model 3. He claimed it had a maximum range of about 350 miles, and that rapid 15 minute charging stations are located at various places along the freeways

I have not kept track of Tesla the last few years, and it was not among the cars I considered when we were shopping for a new car last year, so I guess the development may be further along than I thought. But I took a look at the Tesla website this morning and found that they advertise both 353 mile range and 15 minute charging, but if you think about the figures and read the small print you have to realize that you could not go 353 miles before recharging or you would be on the side of the road calling your roadside assistance company, and the fine print says that the 15 minute charge is only good for 175 miles. According to the figures I saw a full charge takes 8.5-10 hours. In addition the 353 mile range apparently only applies to the "long range" model which, I assume, means the model with the bigger battery and the higher price tag.

MSRP: From $37,990
Range: 263 to 353 mi battery-only
MPGe: Up to 148 city / 132 highway
Battery: 50-75 kWh 350 V lithium-ion
Battery charge time: 8.5 to 10h at 220V

Tesla also advertises 20,000 charging stations, but that is world-wide, not in the US. It would be nice to see where the current US charging stations are.

Still, that is better than before so perhaps it is closer to being truly useful. Personally I would have no problem switching to an electric car if, in fact, it could really go decent distances and if, in fact, recharging was fast and provided a relatively full charge. The first seems close to reality, but the second does not.

[AJMike]

Here is a link to the locations of the Tesla charging stations.

He has been smart in where he located them since there are concentrations along the interstate highways, but there is not much along back roads. As an example when we travel to Texas we typically take US 60 -> US 70 > I-10 and there currently are no supercharging stations at all between where we live and Deming, NM, a distance of about 330 miles.

Still, it looks like it might be getting more feasible if only the fast charging stations provided more than 175 miles of charge.

[creativepart]

Mike, the fact that Tesla has sold more than a million cars and has currently sold about 330,000 cars worldwide in the first 9-months of 2020 seems to have alluded you. They are having no problems selling all they can build without putting chargers on US 60 and US 70. Zero advertising, no discounts. Full price.

At present they are building two more factories, one in Berlin and another in Austin. They built their huge China factory from bare ground to churning out thousands of cars in less than one full year.

They also became part of the S&P 500 last week.

Yes, they can’t be RV toads without putting them on a trailer. They aren’t very good for rural locations or long road trips off of the main interstates. But plenty find them a perfect choice.

Next time you exit I-10 in Junction to go to South Llano River SP notice the 10 or so Superchargers behind the Chevron gas station on the north side of the exit.

[AJMike]

Originally Posted by creativepart

Mike, the fact that Tesla has sold more than a million cars and has currently sold about 330,000 cars worldwide in the first 9-months of 2020 seems to have alluded you.

That is a fair statement. I have not paid much attention to Tesla so I did not know they had sold so many cars.

Originally Posted by creativepart

They aren’t very good for rural locations or long road trips off of the main interstates.

Which was my point.

Originally Posted by creativepart

But plenty find them a perfect choice.

Undoubtably true. I had assumed they were strictly urban setting cars and were largely designed for large city settings, but not for long distance travel. I am more than willing to admit that I am wrong, but I find it interesting that there are no Tesla dealerships or suercharger stations in the entire eastern part of the Phoenix metro area. That is an area of probably a million people, and no Tesla dealerships, no supercharger stations. The two in the Phoenix metro area are both in Scottsdale, which is the posh part of the metroplex.

I am not suggesting that they are not the future - they probably are. I was only saying that I did not think that that future was that close. Perhaps I am wrong but it seems to me that they will have to drop in price before they become very very popular here in the US, especially that part of the West that does not border on the Pacific.

In any case this discussion has served to educate me on where Tesla currently is in the card market, so it has been helpful to me.

[creativepart]

After Tesla gets the new factories built, and the new (ugly) pickup truck orders filled (450,000 deposits) the plan is to build a lower priced model. But knowing them this could take a while.

Many states still prohibit the outright sale of Tesla vehicles. Even Texas does this. Auto dealer associations have a lot of state legislatures in their pocket and have passed many laws prohibiting auto companies from selling direct to the customer - which is how Tesla sells cars. In Texas, you can go to a "dealership" but they cannot directly sell you a car nor discuss your purchasing a car while you are speaking to them. Yet, there are hundreds of thousands of Tesla's on the road in Texas. They have to be purchased online and shipped in for delivery from out of state.

Arizona started allowing direct sales of Tesla vehicles in 2017.

Outside of Tesla, there are more than 30-new electric cars being introduced in the next 2-years alone.

Volkswagen is embarking on a HUGE introduction of their I.D. line of electric cars. Porsche's electric $130,000 Taycan has been selling out the entire production capacity for the past 6-months. In fact, it is Porsche's single biggest seller of all of their models.

https://electrek.co/2020/09/22/tayca...anamera-sales/

Here's the VW I.D. 4 SUV:
https://www.vw.com/en/models/id-4.html

[Wayne M]

A long, long way down the road in years, Ford had a commercial that by 2035 the plan to have all, or most electric vehicles. For now, check out Ford Mustang Mach E - 2021

[AJMike]

Originally Posted by Wayne M

For now, check out Ford Mustang Mach E - 2021

I would think that the charging times shown on the webpage would have to improve considerably before the car was truly useful outside of large urban areas. The fastest on-the-road charging time shown is

"go from a 10% to 80% charge in 45 minutes",

although I do not know if 80% charge also means 80% of the specified 230 mile range with the standard battery (or 300 mile range with the larger battery). Even if so, a trip from where I live to the San Diego area (where we used to go frequently before the virus) would take 2 45 minute stops, which seems a bit problematic. Personally I would also like to see what effect mountainous terrain would have on the battery range.

I am not suggesting that electric cars are not the future, only that that future may be some time off. We seem to be at the point where electric cars are feasible for those who live and travel only in urban areas, but less than fully useful if travel between cities is a requirement.

[creativepart]

One thing electric car owners will tell you is that they rarely take long road trips and when they do that the need to recharge every ~250 miles gives them a natural rest stop. Many charging stations are near restaurants and coffee shops.

Thinking of my own car driving I'd say I would test a ~300 mile range no more than 1 or 2 times in a year. Fully 90% of my driving would be less than 100 miles round trip in any given day. And we live about 35-miles away from the city center in San Antonio.

Charging at home 80% of the time overnight would be easily integrated into my schedules. I like the idea of no gas, no maintenance, and overall cost of ownership.

But, because of the need to flat tow my car we're just not ready to make the move to electric cars just yet. I'd do so immediately if flat-towing was an option.

[sundog964]

The route from LA/SD to SF on I-5 is quite busy. There is a Tesla Supercharger station at the bottom of the Grapevine in the central valley. This is usually almost full, and lots of restaurants around to eat at while the car is recharging.

We are thinking of getting an electric, but with Covid, neither of us drive much anymore. And we are looking for a good Toad for the Vista. 1st world problems.