Go - No Go

[creativepart]

Al, a Google search for "China seeing a second round" will pull up all the articles on this. I saw one headline yesterday, but can't find that article now.

[Morich]

Nbc national news today is on air but the article I read is just one of many that I read but don't log where it was found. Today was a mixed report from China, as things are never truly reliable reports. On one hand they have stated a fairly low death count in the lower thousands but they also have a funeral home which has placed two orders for 5000 urns on each order. Seems to be a mismatch of a low death total but needing far more urns for funerals? On the good side, today was reported as a day with no new deathes there, but with opening of the area, more infections reported.
Part of the second wave will likely be from people who have been stopped from going home and as they open the area, the infection will come back with those people. Several cruise ships are still not docked and have sick on board.

[Morich]

Articles for reference:
Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...of-second-wave
NPR
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...-then-positive
Asia Times
https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/china-...9-second-wave/
Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2160M5
Financial times
https://www.ft.com/content/859e9336-...9-1fe6fedcca75
Asia Nikkei
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Pic...ot-of-pandemic

I did not have a specific article that I was quoting but just general news from a number of places.

[Wyatt]

Originally Posted by Morich

Nbc national news today is on air but the article I read is just one of many that I read but don't log where it was found. Today was a mixed report from China, as things are never truly reliable reports. On one hand they have stated a fairly low death count in the lower thousands but they also have a funeral home which has placed two orders for 5000 urns on each order. Seems to be a mismatch of a low death total but needing far more urns for funerals? On the good side, today was reported as a day with no new deathes there, but with opening of the area, more infections reported.
Part of the second wave will likely be from people who have been stopped from going home and as they open the area, the infection will come back with those people. Several cruise ships are still not docked and have sick on board.

Very true. Thank you! Did anyone read this NatGeo story about the Spanish flu of 1918?

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/h...-coronavirus/#

[Goodspike]

Originally Posted by al1florida

Please supply some links to articles about your statement: "With China seeing a second round of the virus coming again". I must have missed the news reports about this and would like to read more details.

I was going to ask the same thing. Their numbers seem stable, but I have heard their confirmed cases now only include people who tested positive and are symptomatic. That change though wouldn't affect the reporting of deaths--death is pretty symptomatic! Of course there's the "are they telling the truth" factor.

[jpspaz]

We canceled our week down south and I am super bummed about it. We were supposed to meet with friends whom we haven't seen in a couple of years and I don't know if we are going to get a chance to reschedule. It really depends on how fast we can get past the pandemic. I am also struggling with all of the travel restrictions and park closings. I would love to just jump in and go to a sparsely populated state/nat park or somewhere in the woods, even if it meant boondocking for a few days. This is the time of year that I long for to get out after winter and I can't do it.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Wyatt

Very true. Thank you! Did anyone read this NatGeo story about the Spanish flu of 1918?

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/h...-coronavirus/#

I've read it along with some other interesting NG articles. The key takeaway is to take measures early and not to relax too soon. The comparison between the cities that took different courses of action is dramatic.

[Goodspike]

Originally Posted by BobC

I've read it along with some other interesting NG articles. The key takeaway is to take measures early and not to relax too soon. The comparison between the cities that took different courses of action is dramatic.

I've mentioned this book before, but it's because I really enjoyed it. It's a historical book but with so much personal detail it reads more like science fiction. It covers medical history for about 2,000 years and goes into the 21st century, but focuses on the Spanish flu incident.

https://www.amazon.com/Great-Influen...s%2C232&sr=8-1

[Wyatt]

Originally Posted by jpspaz

We canceled our week down south and I am super bummed about it. We were supposed to meet with friends whom we haven't seen in a couple of years and I don't know if we are going to get a chance to reschedule. It really depends on how fast we can get past the pandemic. I am also struggling with all of the travel restrictions and park closings. I would love to just jump in and go to a sparsely populated state/nat park or somewhere in the woods, even if it meant boondocking for a few days. This is the time of year that I long for to get out after winter and I can't do it.

I think we all share your frustration. What better way to avoid cabin fever than taking one’s cabin on the road. But these are different times. I know of two of our clients who had to postpone their Hawaii weddings—all planned, guests booked their travel, accommodations, etc. and from what I’m hearing, most will not get a refund, and neither will get married.
And then there’s the people who have lost their lives, and others that will do so.
All in all, I’m content as best we can be, to be alive, healthy and at home, as long as it takes to help stop this virus.
Hang in there, you’ll rebook, and it will be all that much more sweet when you do.

[Morich]

Canceled plans without refunds or weddings canceled can seem bad , and they are from a small personal view but then we need to think of folks who were waiting for organ transplants, or other life saving things that we just think of going to the hospital to have done. None of that is getting done when the system breaks down.
I was in the hospital last week for a minor chest pain and testing but they were so overrun and trying so hard to get ready, that the full testing is put off as I am deemed "okay" for now.
I'm not volunteering for anything risky like driving until I can see a hospital bed being open! Just in case I miss a curve and wind up in the ditch. I'm not at all sure something minor like a broken hip or snake bite will get you a bed locally.
Be safe and pray for the nurses and EMT folks!

[Wyatt]

Stay healthy. Hope you’re better...

[BobC]

And stay safe when working on your RV or around the house, you don't want to go to the ER. And, if at all possible, stay off ladders. I tore my rotator cuff this past summer and am only now pretty much fully recovered from the surgery.

[al1florida]

Originally Posted by Morich

Articles for reference:
Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...of-second-wave
NPR
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...-then-positive
Asia Times
https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/china-...9-second-wave/
Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2160M5
Financial times
https://www.ft.com/content/859e9336-...9-1fe6fedcca75
Asia Nikkei
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Pic...ot-of-pandemic

I did not have a specific article that I was quoting but just general news from a number of places.

Thanks for the articles.

The reason for my request of the articles was that I understood from your statement of "With China seeing a second round of the virus coming again" that there was an actual second round already happening in China.

The articles appear to be stating that there is a possibility a second round starting up in the next few weeks or months. Also that COVID-19 is not likely just a one an done, but will back in some form this coming winter or sooner.

We definitely are going to see this mess going on for a while, a lot longer than any of us would hope for.

[Goodspike]

Originally Posted by al1florida

Thanks for the articles.

The reason for my request of the articles was that I understood from your statement of "With China seeing a second round of the virus coming again" that there was an actual second round already happening in China.

As I mentioned before, I'd read somewhere that China changed is system for reporting active cases. I'd only read that once though and haven't looked to find it again.

I do find their numbers either concerning or promising though. Either they have gone back to hiding what is going on, or the virus there has either changed or herd immunity develops quickly (especially given the fact that most the new cases they are reporting are due to people returning to China from elsewhere). If developing and reporting normally you'd expect to see more new cases and deaths in places inside China outside the initial hotspot.

[Morich]

Understanding why the reporting is pretty spotty is part of understanding how we got to this point.
It is my understanding, and prone to being corrected, that we made some moves involved with the trade discussions which have now come back to haunt us.
One of those moves was to pull the embedded medical folks who worked with the Chinese med folks. The lady was pulled out in June/July of 2017 if I remember the date and has not been replaced. Part of the "trimming down" of what was thought to be unneeded personnel.
Yes, we do get very slow and often inaccurate reports from China but that is a pretty obvious result of pulling our personnel out. Kind of like taking the seat belts out of cars as we don't need them too often?

[Goodspike]

Originally Posted by Morich

One of those moves was to pull the embedded medical folks who worked with the Chinese med folks. The lady was pulled out in June/July of 2017 if I remember the date and has not been replaced.

I never got to the bottom of that, but I think it was likely nothing. I don't think that position was anywhere near the outbreak, so it would be like claiming someone in NYC would in some way have unpublished information about the outbreak in Kirkland Washington. Remember a big part of the problem was the Chinese government was not giving out information, so unless the person was where the outbreak was they would not likely have known anything.

Also, the natural tendency of the press is to try to get eyeballs, and claiming something was done wrong is a way to gain those eyeballs. And once they've looked into something the natural tendency is to publish as long as it won't generate a libel claim, so that the work done will not have been totally wasted (and also so that their boss will not be critical of them having wasted their time).

[Morich]

We only find the truth if we look for it and do the needed checking to sort out the lies and missing info. Here are some of the reports that I based my info on:
First the lady described and her CDC listed background:
https://www.cdc.gov/globalhealth/hea...tion/quick.htm

Reuters
https://www.physiciansweekly.com/exc...-u-s-axed-cdc/
A cut and paste of one related paragraph:
Quick left amid a bitter U.S. trade dispute with China when she learned her federally funded post, officially known as resident adviser to the U.S. Field Epidemiology Training Program in China, would be discontinued as of September, the sources said. The U.S. CDC said it first learned of a “cluster of 27 cases of pneumonia” of unexplained origin in Wuhan, China, on Dec. 31.
Other information from the reports:
In a statement to Reuters before the report was published, the CDC said the elimination of the adviser position did not hinder Washington’s ability to get information and “had absolutely nothing to do with CDC not learning of cases in China earlier.”

This seems important as it does relate to whether personnel were, in fact, removed:
The agency said its decision not to have a resident adviser “started well before last summer and was due to China’s excellent technical capability and maturity of the program.”

The CDC said it has assigned two of its Chinese employees as “mentors” to help with the training program. The agency did not respond to questions about the mentors’ specific role or expertise.

The CDC would not make Quick, who still works for the agency, available for comment.

So in the end, it comes down to who has credit as being honest and reporting the truth. We have to choose between the folks who have always told us the news, even when it was painful or those who have made lots of efforts to keep us from learning the truth. There are those who told us it was going to get bad and there are those who told us it was a media hoax.
At this point, I have to believe those who told us it was going to get bad!

[Goodspike]

Originally Posted by Morich

So in the end, it comes down to who has credit as being honest and reporting the truth. We have to choose between the folks who have always told us the news, even when it was painful or those who have made lots of efforts to keep us from learning the truth. There are those who told us it was going to get bad and there are those who told us it was a media hoax.

If you think the press tells you the truth you're sadly mistaken. They are a business driven by ratings (or clicks).

But if you just went by early press reports you'd reached the same conclusions about SARS, MERS, Ebola, Zika, etc. as Covid-19. Actually that history of press hype and the Chinese government covering up caused me to underestimate the concern. And I've been one worried about pandemics for years!

Going back further, based on early press reports we'd all have herpes and be dying of Aids. The press tries to create concern, so they get no points in my book for having done so with Covid-19.

And BTW, you're mis-quoting on "hoax" because the press has mis-reported on that.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/tr...-rally-remark/

[Morich]

None so blind as those who do not want to see, so we have to choose who to believe.

On the hoax, the Snopes you reference does report it as mixed due to a technicality. So
I fall back to looking at the record of who does often misrepresent the truth.

Do you find the president has actually presented the truth on this pandemic? If so, that is certainly your choice.

[Goodspike]

Originally Posted by Morich

None so blind as those who do not want to see, so we have to choose who to believe.

On the hoax, the Snopes you reference does report it as mixed due to a technicality. So

I was trying to keep this non-political, but apparently you didn't read the Snopes link.

FWIW, I don't like Trump or the press. That's the case with most of the US, but keeping this non-political you seem to be blind as to the press. But since you didn't read the link, here's the quote.

One of my people came up to me and said, ‘Mr. President, they tried to beat you on Russia, Russia, Russia. That didn’t work out too well. They couldn’t do it. They tried the impeachment hoax. That was on a perfect conversation. They tried anything, they tried it over and over, they’ve been doing it since you got in. It’s all turning, they lost, it’s all turning. Think of it. Think of it. And this is their new hoax. But you know, we did something that’s been pretty amazing. We’re 15 people [cases of coronavirus infection] in this massive country. And because of the fact that we went early, we went early, we could have had a lot more than that.

And here's how CNN "fact checked" the topic.

Facts First: From January until last week, Trump consistently minimized the risk the coronavirus posed to the country. He claimed to have the virus under "control," that the number of US cases would go "down, not up," that the virus might "disappear" through a "miracle" or something of the sort, that the virus might well vanish by April with the warmer weather, that the media and Democrats were overhyping the situation, and that "this is their new hoax," leaving it unclear whether he was calling the virus itself a hoax. (He later said he was talking about Democrats' coronavirus-related criticism, not the virus.)

Apparently CNN doesn't know the meaning of the term "later." But hey, I'm not saying the reporters are biased. I'm saying they are stupid. It's not like a journalism degree is respected in college. It's barely a step up from physical education. They don't understand simple English.