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Old 07-10-2020, 11:03 AM   #21
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One of the first steps on the major screwup on our testing was the decision to not use the test other countries who had been fighting it longer were already using. The decision to make it a national issue rather than a medical issue cost us lots of time and delay in getting a test perfected. At this point, our testing is still not perfect on results and we are still very limited on the number of tests we can do, so we have no choice but to suffer, both in lives lost and economy that will be ruined far more and far longer, once the federal money is turned off. Right now the economy is good if we only look at stock prices but that is based on the false idea that things are improving.
Does anybody actually see us in control of this virus?
The news out of Houston this morning is that the number of DOA for EMT calls is now up 45% since January. When they can't get you into the hospital before dying, things are not going well!
Political factors are not as important as results and the results are not good, nor getting better, from what I see.
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Old 07-10-2020, 11:16 AM   #22
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The news out of Houston this morning is that the number of DOA for EMT calls is now up 45% since January. When they can't get you into the hospital before dying, things are not going well!
I hadn't read that, but there was a time during the Spanish Flu where it mutated in some areas and people would die within 24 hours of showing symptoms!
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Old 07-10-2020, 12:43 PM   #23
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Does anybody actually see us in control of this virus?
Not me.

I think it will be impossible to contain this unless and until we can get an effective vaccine that has no serious side effects. Even then if this thing mutates much a single vaccine may not be enough as it may not be effective against some variation.

If what I read about how the antibody count in those who have had the virus declines and is effectively gone in 3 or 6 months I suspect that we may never achieve "herd immunity" without a truly effective vaccine that works against all existing strains.

Personally I will continue to be careful, use a mask and gloves when shopping and stay distant from others as much as I can, but I don't actually expect that kind of behavior to have any hope of controlling this virus. It is out there and just living your life will put you in danger. As careful as we are I don't see this going away anytime soon and by soon I mean in the next 5 years or so sans a vaccine.

I hope I am wrong.
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Old 07-10-2020, 12:51 PM   #24
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One of the first steps on the major screwup on our testing was the decision to not use the test other countries who had been fighting it longer were already using. The decision to make it a national issue rather than a medical issue cost us lots of time and delay in getting a test perfected. At this point, our testing is still not perfect on results and we are still very limited on the number of tests we can do, so we have no choice but to suffer, both in lives lost and economy that will be ruined far more and far longer, once the federal money is turned off. Right now the economy is good if we only look at stock prices but that is based on the false idea that things are improving.
Does anybody actually see us in control of this virus?
The news out of Houston this morning is that the number of DOA for EMT calls is now up 45% since January. When they can't get you into the hospital before dying, things are not going well!
Political factors are not as important as results and the results are not good, nor getting better, from what I see.
We probably should have closed the borders immediately and instituted enforced quarantines for citizens who were returning from overseas. As I understand it the infection in New York apparently came from tourists in Italy and that on the west coast from tourists in Asia. If we had shut down the borders we might (and I mean might) have had a chance.

There are also different laws in the US than in Japan or South Korea and I don't think the US government could have imposed the kind of lockdown used there. I don't think the Constitution allows the kind of enforced restrictions those governments imposed.

As for the comment that South Korea is a poor country, perhaps the poster did not know that it is one of the richest countries in Asia. In fact Japan and South Korea are probably the two biggest economies in Asia and both have some of the highest per capita incomes, so neither is a poor country. Per capita income in Japan is higher than that in Italy and South Korea is just a little behind that.
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Old 07-10-2020, 01:12 PM   #25
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We probably should have closed the borders immediately and instituted enforced quarantines for citizens who were returning from overseas. As I understand it the infection in New York apparently came from tourists in Italy and that on the west coast from tourists in Asia. If we had shut down the borders we might (and I mean might) have had a chance..
I've gone further than that and said we should have shut down all passenger air travel, except those returning home, who would have been quarantined. During the Spanish Flu it was troop movements that were largely responsible for moving the virus around. This time it was airplanes, but for some reason interstate air travel has been completely above any consideration, even today.
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Old 07-10-2020, 01:20 PM   #26
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One of the first things I noticed as it began to really ramp up was that the international cities with international airports were hit hardest and first. New York ? Definite. Seattle? It comes in pretty close for entry/exit to the Pacific. Then as it spread and we did nothing, Chicago, Miami, and Dallas all got on the list. One thing those cities all have in common is the level of traffic, direct to and from places where the virus was already hitting hard.
We did not look, learn, nor adapt to fight it, until now it is likely to totally crater our economy at some point in the future. I expect Christmas to be a total bust.
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Old 07-10-2020, 01:21 PM   #27
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From the Seattle Times.

https://static.seattletimes.com/wp-c...2-1020x736.jpg
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Old 07-10-2020, 02:21 PM   #28
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A car driving in front of you has a positive Covid-19 carrier. Can you be infected in a car behind this carrier?

Case in point: When I am driving around our city I can often smell somebody who is smoking in the car in front of me. That odor is expelled smoke and air particles from somebody's lungs.

Rediculous? Maybe and maybe not.
Great question. It’s one I had as well, whereas I was concerned about people without masks jogging by me while breathing heavily. Turns out, I really didn’t need to be concerned like I was.

This is a very good article about the risk of contracting COVID-19. It explains the factors needed, such as amount of exposure quantity and duration. An excellent read.

It would suggest that the amount of droplets you might get exposed to, and the short duration would be insufficient to get one sick in a car—following another car.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the...hem-avoid-them
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Old 07-10-2020, 03:03 PM   #29
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I'll read it Wyatt. Thx

Just read the article. Very interesting. Hope folks read it. There's some good info to know.
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Old 07-10-2020, 03:53 PM   #30
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Yes. Very interesting article. Thanks for posting it.

Aside from grocery stores we avoid the high contagious areas and rarely are in any enclosed structure with other people (other than the grocery store). Still, I assume in the end most people in the US and the world are going to be exposed to the virus, regardless of how careful they are. I suspect that eventually most people will get enough of the virus to be considered infected, symptomatic or not, and I think we need to wait for a vaccine to gain control over it. Provided any vaccine does not cause more trouble than the virus.

The writer mentioned a minimum dose required for infection but I don't think that a minimum dosage is any better than a larger one since the virus is replicating and even a small dose large enough to infect someone will soon turn into a large dose as the virus reproduces itself. Or so I suspect.
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Old 07-10-2020, 04:16 PM   #31
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One thing I noticed? Oh the glory of taking an optimistic view!
wouldn't it be great to go back to the date of the last update of May 20 and only be at that level?
QUOTE:
Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, it is possible that we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak.

What did we miss in the last six weeks, since then? One has to wonder what the author would say about our current total of 132,000+? The problem being that we have not reached the peak but are still climbing.
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Old 07-11-2020, 12:07 AM   #32
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Richard, please try convincing your son to see a doctor about all his symptoms. Sometimes our kids need that parental shove in the right direction, whether they like it or not. Best of luck, hope you all get to move on from these worries! I know sometimes I put off my health issues hoping they would go away. Not always true.

It’s embarrassing to let the world know how badly our citizens handled this pandemic. Yes, I agree with you, Goodspike, we hadn’t had a chance to learn about the cautions, and social media these days isn’t any help at all. It’s no wonder with all the crud online! Protecting exposure is the ONLY way for this to go away.

As far as camping, I believe there are safe places. But we must do our homework, make phone calls and get used to a more “low key, quiet” vacation, without social interactions. I’m a wildlife person, so prefer them over humans, lol. So it was easy.

We had two stress free weeks in Yellowstone and the Tetons a few weeks back, although the virus stats have gotten a lot worse now. So I probably would not venture so far right now. Maybe late Fall would be a little safer.
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Old 07-11-2020, 08:08 AM   #33
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The problem with testing is that it is very limited in the places where the virus is growing rapidly, so that means one has to "prove" a need for testing before it can be ordered. Since he currently has no really big obvious symptoms like a fever, he is not considered a candidate for testing by the doctors he has seen. He is considered as "recovered" if they agree that he had it!
State budgets are stretched really thin and when it was announced that the federal government was just a backup there was no extra money designated in the smaller states where the state government agrees so much with the federal response of "no response" as the correct way to go.
When you agree that the way to keep the numbers down is to slow down testing, testing becomes out of the question.
It's left to folks like the mayor of West Plains, Mo. to decide how to deal with a pandemic and the sheriff says it's not his problem, so what is there to do?
Bottom line? It is too screwed up to recover and we will have to just live and die by chance as there was/is no planning.
Meanwhile the local news in Texas is that there may not be a high school football season this year. Knowing how Texans feel about football, there appears to be some thinking going on at the local levels. The University of Texas has brought back 56 players for pre- season "volunteer" practice but 32 of them were in quarantine so practices were limited.
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Old 07-11-2020, 09:54 AM   #34
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The problem with testing is that it is very limited in the places where the virus is growing rapidly, so that means one has to "prove" a need for testing before it can be ordered. Since he currently has no really big obvious symptoms like a fever, he is not considered a candidate for testing by the doctors he has seen. He is considered as "recovered" if they agree that he had it! .
Again, different tests. If they consider him recovered, does that mean they've done an antibody test. The nasal swab test would presumably come back negative, so there would be no reason to do it at this point in time.
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Old 07-15-2020, 08:53 AM   #35
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Great question. It’s one I had as well, whereas I was concerned about people without masks jogging by me while breathing heavily. Turns out, I really didn’t need to be concerned like I was.

This is a very good article about the risk of contracting COVID-19. It explains the factors needed, such as amount of exposure quantity and duration. An excellent read.

It would suggest that the amount of droplets you might get exposed to, and the short duration would be insufficient to get one sick in a car—following another car.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the...hem-avoid-them
Recently a husband and wife (friends) were tested for Covid-19. Of course they share the same space and many routine activities. They are extremely cautious about avoiding public spaces. They wear masks even while driving. Here's the rub; the husband was tested positive and the wife was negative. They waited about a week and were retested. Again, the husband came back positive and the wife negative. The husband said he didn't feel sick but noticed he was a little off and was tired a lot more. He is 74 years old and she is right at 70. They are living in a hotel due to their home being messed up after hurricane Michael. Maybe he caught it from this high concentration area??

I don't see how she isn't positive too? This just seems weird.
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Old 07-15-2020, 10:32 AM   #36
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I don't see how she isn't positive too? This just seems weird.
Maybe he caught it from her. Unless they are doing an antibody test too they wouldn't know.
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Old 07-15-2020, 11:54 AM   #37
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Recently a husband and wife (friends) were tested for Covid-19. Of course they share the same space and many routine activities. They are extremely cautious about avoiding public spaces. They wear masks even while driving. Here's the rub; the husband was tested positive and the wife was negative. They waited about a week and were retested. Again, the husband came back positive and the wife negative. The husband said he didn't feel sick but noticed he was a little off and was tired a lot more. He is 74 years old and she is right at 70. They are living in a hotel due to their home being messed up after hurricane Michael. Maybe he caught it from this high concentration area??

I don't see how she isn't positive too? This just seems weird.
Or lucky. Assuming these folks are that diligent about their safe practices, that may be the reason the wife hasn’t contracted the virus from her husband.
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Old 07-15-2020, 12:03 PM   #38
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Goodspike and Wyatt those are good thoughts. I'll follow up with them to see where this goes.
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Old 07-15-2020, 03:13 PM   #39
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It does not seem possible to make much sense out of reports like this one because we don’t really have enough information about what testing is showing.

1) Which tests are swab and which are antibody?
2) What is the breakdown of test results based on sex? Do more males test positive? More females? Or is there no difference?
3) What is the breakdown of test results based on blood type? There are reports that O positive blood type provides more protection than other blood types, but what is the breakdown? Are there differences between positive and negative blood types?
4) The recent spike in positive test results - are they from swab or antibody tests? It makes a difference in that antibody tests only show there has been exposure, not if the person is currently positive, nor when he or she might have been exposed, nor whether or not they had symptoms.
5) How long does immunity last? If people get it a second time are they less likely to have a serious case? More likely? The same?
6) About a hundred more questions.

We see released information without the breakdown to make any sense out of what we are seeing or hearing. Test results seem to be grouped together although swab and antibody tests show completely different things.

How can we make any sense or make sensible public policy without further information than we are getting, and that is why I treat all of these reports with some skepticism. Not that we are being lied to, but that we are not being told enough information to make sense out of what we see and hear.
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Old 07-15-2020, 03:44 PM   #40
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Many of us older veterans had basic CBR training way back in history but even that basic stuff was better than the garbage we get on this virus. Did anybody in their right mind think stocking bottled water, paper towels, and toilet paper was anything more than cut and paste info from hurricane prep advice?
None of those would have been in short supply----if the information had been run through any sort of logical process.
It seems to me that confusion and disinformation has been the cover story all along.
So what are they covering up? Perhaps a massive swindle involving trillions of dollars of waste? Who do you think will eventually pay for the "donated" 63 million doses of this wonder drug? Who is getting paid to store it?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/17/healt...ile/index.html
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